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发布日期：2024-11-25 20:40 点击次数：96
（原标题：Wall Street Frontline | Tim Anderson's insights on the future of the S&P 500 and gold prices）
In the wake of the recent U.S. presidential election and heightened stock market volatility, investors are turning their attention to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming December policy meeting and the potential economic shifts triggered by President-elect Donald Trump’s administration. Key concerns include the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory, current market valuations, and the potential impact of the new administration’s policies.
To shed light on these critical topics, Wall Street Frontline conducted an exclusive interview with Tim Anderson, a veteran trader at the New York Stock Exchange and Managing Director of TJM Investments. Anderson provided in-depth insights into the future of the S&P 500, gold price projections, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the sustainability of the “Trump trade.”
According to Anderson, Morgan Stanley’s shift from a bearish to a bullish outlook, alongside its revised S&P 500 target, reflects growing optimism about economic performance. However, he cautioned that high market valuations would require substantial corporate earnings growth for support. He also highlighted key variables shaping the market’s future, including the productivity potential of AI technology, Trump’s trade and tariff policies, and rising inflation risks.
Despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent hawkish comments, Anderson believes a 25-basis-point rate cut in December remains likely. He expects the Fed to potentially lower rates three to four times next year, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.25%-3.50%, though he emphasized that zero-rate environments are not sustainable and the future is likely to see rates stabilize at neutral levels. Below is the full transcript of the interview:
Wall Street Frontline : First question is about Morgan Stanley, because they have shifted their viewpoint from a bearish to a bullish stance. Right now, they are expecting the S&P 500 to reach around 6500 by the end of 2025. So, what do you think about the targeted price for S&P 500?
Tim Anderson: Well, I think it's very interesting because Mike Wilson, who is the equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, was one of the most ardent bears on the street for at least a couple of years. So actually, it makes me a little nervous that he's finally throwing in the towel when we're at all-time highs. But look, 6500 by the end of next year, I think that's a little bit less than 10%, right around 10% from where we are right now. We've been at 6000 before. Of course, we don't know where we'll close the year in six weeks. But I think that's a very realistic goal for the market. I think that historically, the first year of a new president's administration, the market typically performs well. There could be some other dynamics involved, which I'm sure you'll get to given that it's Trump 2.0. But I do think that the market has room to move on the upside.
Wall Street Frontline : So despite the optimistic viewpoint and expectations, Morgan Stanley, they also acknowledge that right now the market valuations are very high, but not at extreme points.Do you share the same viewpoint as well as all the traders on the NYSE floor? What do they think about the current market valuation?
Tim Anderson: Yes, stocks certainly are not cheap. Just to compare it to when Trump came into office eight years ago, the PEs were about 16, 17 for the S&P 500. Now we're at about 22. But we're not at all in what you would call bubble territory, like we were at the peak of the internet bubble in 2000, or even going way back in the summer to fall of 1987, before we had the big correction there. So, what we'll really need from the market is earnings expansion. And then, because that's what when you're at low level of PEs of 21, 22, the investors are really betting that you're going to have earnings expansion to grow into that multiple, so to speak. And I also think that the wild card that can help with that a lot will be we haven't really seen yet the positive effect in productivity that AI equipment being used at the end user will benefit earnings from the companies that have spent hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars implementing it. We've seen huge benefits for the chip makers, because orders have been extremely strong, and they probably have very high margins on those products, given that its first or second cycle products. But we have not seen to what degree it will impact productivity to the positive, and I'm sure that it will, at the end user of that product. Maybe we'll start to get some really good hard data on that in the second or third quarter next year.
Wall Street Frontline : When we talk about Trump 2.0, we have to talk about his famous economic policies, including increasing tariffs, and this may pose a greater risk to inflation. Inflation might come back again. How do you think these concerns would influence the sustainability of Trump trade?
Tim Anderson: Okay, so if we do get tariffs, it would of course all be a question of what the tariffs were being imposed on and how much that affected higher prices here in the U.S. So if they were imposed on just whatever, a sector or two sectors, without naming individual sectors, just to give you a hypothetical, what you would likely have would be like a one-time increase in price and then just a flat line across that level. You would not necessarily have a gradual increase in prices like we saw coming out of COVID from the overly aggressive stimulus that went into the American economy that just fed inflation for a long period of time. This would be like a one-time lift and then a parallel across that level. Now the other thing that I think investors have to consider about a lot of Trump's talk on tariffs is that we really don't know how or even if they would be implemented on goods coming into the U.S., it's possible that they might be used very largely as a negotiating tactic.
Wall Street Frontline : So you think the tariff may not even actually happen?
Tim Anderson: We don't know that yet. It's very likely that they could happen, but if countries were willing to deal on other issues, maybe the trade-off would be, okay, we won't impose the tariffs if you back off. Now I'm just saying that knowing the way that Trump is very willing to negotiate across policy issues to achieve a desirable end effect.
Wall Street Frontline : Right now, some Wall Street companies, such as Goldman, forecast gold to reach around $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025, driven by the expectation of Federal Reserve to cut rates and also central banks buying. So how realistic do you think the gold would reach $3,000 per ounce? And do you still view gold as a safe haven asset?
Tim Anderson: Well, gold really had a ceiling of right around $2,000 for close to 12 years. And then we got through that level. And then we had a little resistance at $2,200, $2,400. We got over $2,700 shortly before the election. And since the election, it's backed off a little bit. But I think that it can stabilize itself and easily get to $3,000, maybe $3,200, $3,400. And that would be, I think, a very realistic move for gold over the next year, 18 months, without putting a hard deadline on it. There are obviously other financial plays like cryptos and Bitcoin that have taken some of that play from gold. But I would not be surprised to see it hit $3,000 and maybe even go a little bit higher.
Wall Street Frontline : So besides central banks buying and the expectation of Federal Reserve to cut rates, are there any other factors that would drive the gold price to increase?
Tim Anderson: Well, certainly, if we had some type of an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, or some bad turn in the Middle East conflict between Israel and these non-nation states that are primarily supported by Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas. Now, clearly, since the election, both of those conflicts seem to be more likely to be resolved sooner than later. But those would be two items to watch very closely. Now, on the other hand, should one or two of those conflicts be resolved very shortly into the new year, the market could take that very favorably also.
Wall Street Frontline : Right now, do you think the market still expects a 25-basis point cut from the Federal Reserve in December?
Tim Anderson: I think that's the most likely scenario. I know that the Fed Chairman Powell made some comments a week ago that were viewed as being slightly hawkish that we're not really in a big hurry. But I think he's also, if he's got a dual mandate, employment and inflation, he's also a little bit more worried about employment right now than inflation. Inflation has been a little bit stickier on the 2.75%-3% level. And I think that that 25 basis point cut in December is still the most likely outcome. And then I think the base case for 25 seems to be a cut every other meeting, which would be four cuts. Even if we only got three cuts, we go down to 3.25%-3.50%. That's a lot better than 5.25-5.5%, where we were six to eight months ago.
Wall Street Frontline : And the last question, if I ask you to use one word to describe the stock market for the whole 2024, which word would that be?
Tim Anderson: I would say very resilient and consistently higher.
Wall Street Frontline : How sustainable is this rally going beyond?
Tim Anderson: We probably will not have the same rate of increase in 2025 that we had this year. We were up 20%, maybe in the first six months. So that would be astounding if we were to have that. Now, the wild card is if we have a lot of this AI infrastructure really start to kick in some key industry sectors and we see very significant increases in productivity, that could really push earnings for a lot of companies and that would help justify these valuations. So above 20%? I doubt it, but could it be 12%, 15%? Yeah, that's still very good. It's not out of the question. And that's still very good.